S&P 500 emini pre-open Tuesday 5th August

posted at 05.00 a.m. est

By strictly applying my rules I had to mark Significant Buying on Monday. However, an “inside” Value Area was generated so this was not Effective Buying. This is the only Significant Buying I have marked in seventeen days and follows the Effective Selling last week. The Sellers have shown their hand and have taken control of the dayframe. How strong the Buyers are at this point will depend on whether they can auction ES back above 1949 – price below this level is weak price location. Other Key Charts have so far held their Support, which is critical for the Bulls, see below – these levels should be watched closely.

ES First Level Resistance = 1949.00 (4mn poc)
ES First Level Support = 1872 (maj poc)

ETFs – Key Charts/Levels: IWM has broken below 112.30, the 2yr poc, which is now Resistance. DIA found Support on Friday at 164.23 (2yr poc). XLF Support at 21.99 (2yr poc). XLK Support at 38.42 (maj 1/2R).

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 31% (from 25%), Nasdaq 33% (from 29%), R2000 27% (from 23%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: Rydex data unavailable when this was posted. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 10.47 on Tuesday last week, the highest in my database. VIX closed at 15.12 on Monday having reached 17.57 intraday on Friday, the highest reading since April. On 07/03 it closed at 10.32, the lowest since Feb 2007

Bonds TLT: in a strong price location above 112.27, the 10mn poc.
Dollar Index: in early July chart found Support at the 79.76 maj poc and has moved strongly higher from there. Last week chart reached its highest level since Sep last year.
Gold GLD: printing below 127.00, the 30mn poc, in a weak price location.
Oil USO: printing below 37.96, the maj poc, in a weak price location.
EURUSD: in a weak price location below 1.3602 (12mn poc) and currently printing just above the next Support level which is 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low.