posted 09.17 a.m. est
pre-open comment Tuesday 5th February
Please see previous comments highlighted on graphic.
Monday’s session generated a lower, wider Value Area. No Selling Imbalances were maarked but this was the first session with a lower VA and a weak Close in quite a while. New long trades have been eliminated for me since Open on Thursday last week. I need to see the Significant Buyers active again around these levels (1500) before considering new longs. The minor (now 40day) poc migrated slightly to 1495 and is First Level Support today as ES prints above that level pre-open. Holding that level would be sign of strength in the ST.
First Level Support = 1495 (40 dy poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 84% and Nasdaq 75%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply lower at 4.39 (from 4.51). Bear fund assets that I follow were up more than 20% with the VIX spiking up to a 22day closing high at 14.67. Some Bears emerged here and from a contrarian pov it will be interesting to see if that develops.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Currently having difficulty printing back above 117.15, the major poc. Time below this level is weak price location.
? Commodities: Oil USO is overbought technically but printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price holding above this level indicates further strength. Gold GLD has spent nearly all of the last four weeks consolidating above the 161.0 major poc which is a sign of strength if that level holds. Silver SLV is a Key Chart. It has again rallied to 31.25, its major poc, but has not exceeded it.
+ Dollar Index: Up from Friday’s weak Close but still printing below 79.80, the 2yr poc. This is a positive for equities but that could change quickly.
+ EURUSD: Chart has so far held above 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) since it cleared that Resistance eight days ago.
imo these charts most likely have a positive bias for equities.
Key Charts: Watch TLT relative to 117.15 and SLV relative to 31.25.
