posted 9.05 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Tuesday 5th July
Three weeks ago sentiment readings reached extreme bearish levels, i.e. contrarian Bullish (see previous comments highlighted) but for the following two weeks the market didn’t want to rally. However, on Monday last week an attempt to break below the 1265.50 poc was rejected “for the third time in six days” and following this third rejection price was swiftly auctioned the other way to attempt a probe at the major poc at 1327 on Friday. Whether ES can hold above this level is the most important factor to monitor this coming week.
On the daily Profile last week I marked five instances of Significant Buying. Weekly Structure is bullish; Friday Closed above Mon-Wed Range high and the Weekly VA as a whole was overlapping/higher. This is Effective Buying on this timeframe.
The Chartprofit Market Timing is now neutral for all Major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma – Both Nyse and Nasdaq numbers are back above 50
1st Level S/R = 1327 (maj poc) (132.18 SPY)
2nd Level Support = 1310 (1/2R off May high) (131.68 SPY)
2nd Level Resistance = 1339 (the VAH measured over various timeframes including the entire range Jan this year)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 2.00. Last week SPX rallied more than 5% but the ratio finished the week lower than the previous Friday. This is not Bearish.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Chart currently printing above (just) the 1.445 Resistance (1/2R off May high). Momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
+ Dollar Index: Chart currently printing below (just) the 74.53 Support (1/2R off May low). Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
+ TLT: Chart printed a 40day low last week. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down. Support at 92.94 (1/2R off Feb low).
imo these charts currently imply a positive ST bias for equities but this could change quickly.
