pre-open comment Tuesday 6th August
Monday’s session generated a higher/overlapping Value Area and this was the fourth consecutive VA above the minor (16day) poc at 1682.50. Time printed below that level would be the first indication of ST weakness.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1677.00 (40dy poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75%, Nasdaq 75%, R2000 76%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.68 (from 3.50) which is a 32day high but to put that in persective; the ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012). With the market higher than the May high the ratio has been slow to climb.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Last week chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2011. The 4mn poc migrated to 107.22 and TLT closed at 105.70 on Monday which is weak price location.
Oil USO: Bulls would want to see time printed above the maj poc at 37.93 and Momentum turning up. USO closed at 37.83 on Monday.
Gold GLD: The June low was the lowest print since Aug 2010. Rallied from there but I would want to see chart printing above the 12mn poc at 134.17 before assuming further strength. Momentum is positive but down.
Dollar Index: Sampled on a 30minute basis the major poc migrated higher to 82.73 last week. Currently in ST weak price location below that level. Bulls would want to see price printing time above that poc. Momentum is negative but up.
EURUSD: Has rallied strongly since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and last week printed a 28day high. As long as 1.3065 holds (9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location.
