The previous level of a poc will sometimes provide Support and 2035.00 was a possibility but this level (dashed) was immediately rejected post-open on Monday. I will wait for Significant Buying (green) to be marked before considering new longs. Breadth has deteriorated, see below, and the Rydex traders have not shown much fear so far this week which is a concern, see below.
Stock Index ETFs: Key Chart IWM tested and (so far) rejected its March/July highs but there is 18mn Time Support Support at 116.00, see previous comments.
First Level Resistance = 2070.00 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 197.20 (8mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44% (from 60%), Nasdaq 48% (from 59%), R2000 52% (from 64%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio is at 11.28. Also the Rydex Money Market Assets (Inv Class) has fallen for four consecutive days. When looking for a corrective low it is good to see this group showing some fear which isn’t registering yet. In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database and Bear Fund assets that I follow fell to a new low last week.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: higher again pre-open today and now close to the 2012 high.
Dollar Index: last month held the minor Support at 87.70 (2mn poc) and on Monday printed its highest level since December 2005.
Gold GLD: remains in a weak LT price location below the 119.87 maj poc but pre-open today is printing above 114.78, the 8mn poc.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and pre-open today has printed a new low.
EURUSD: probed the 4mn Time Resistance at 1.2475 last month and is lower from there, printing below 1.2300, the maj poc, and on Monday printed its lowest level since March 2006.
