posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open Tuesday 6th October
I suggested yesterday that if the ES down auction was set to resume quickly any price probe above 1030 might well attract a Selling Response. We did see that early in the session but ES recovered strongly with Aggressive Buying in the p.m.
The Value Area was overlapping/higher so this is Effective Buying and indicates more strength from the Buyers than I was expecting.
1044 is the halfway point of the recent decline and marks an important level today. Pre-open there has been an attempt to consolidate above this level which would be bullish if it can be maintained after the open. I respect green on the profile especially when I didn’t expect to see it and so I cannot consider the short side today (my number 1 rule tells me never to fade the last imbalance).
However, ES has retraced more than 50% of the decline (pre-open high is 1047.75) and if the Sellers are trying to establish control here then this price probe higher above 4dyVA should be attractive.
1044 is the key today.
