Pre-open comment Tuesday 7th April
See Thursday’s highlighted comments. Monday’s session generated a higher, wider Value Area with Reactive Buying (green-at-bottom) marked above First Level Support at 2045.00. As long as ES holds above 2045.00 it is in a strong price location. Time below this level would indicate weakness. Breadth numbers improved, see below.
First Level Support/Resistance = 2072.00 (1/2R off Feb high)
Second Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc); SPY 205.00 (6mn poc)
Breadth: Market Charts – Nyse turned neutral from negative, Nasdaq turned neutral from positive, R2000 and UK stayed positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 58%, R2000 67%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio closed Monday at 11.47. On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database. SPY corrected from that point but the ratio has indicated little fear. From a contrarian perspective this is not very encouraging. More pessimism would be would be welcome
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: pre-open today is printing below 130.75, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Stronger price location if it can print some time above that level.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Has corrected from there but there is Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Today DX is currently printing below 98.28, the 1/2R off the recent high, which is weaker price location in the ST.
Gold GLD: pre-open today is printing above 115.12, the 12mn poc. Time above this level would be a positive.
Oil USO: last week probed 18.39, the 12mn poc Resistance. pre-open today is printing just below that level.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support in March.
