posted 9.10 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Tuesday 7th February
Monday consolidated the gains made on Friday. In the dayframe as long as ES holds above First Level Support at 1322.50 or until Effective Selling is marked I have to assume higher despite the overbought readings and concerns about Sentiment like VIX at multi-months lows and the Rydex readings (see below).
First Level Support = 1322.5 (min poc)
Second Level Support = 1307 (maj poc) SPY = 131.28
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 3.71 on Monday which is the highest reading since mid May last year. This is a concern. The retail Rydex traders are very bullish which is not usually a good sign for the market (contrarian). Surprisingly the Option Ratios do not support this, e.g. the ISEE (equity-only) Index came in at 187 which is not a particulary high number and the 10dyma, at 160.7, is in the bottom 30% of its six month range of values.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: Currently consolidating above the 3mnth poc at 1.30.
+ Dollar Index: Chart prints below the important 80.15 level.
+ TLT: Chart is printing below (just) the 10month poc at 117.88.
imo these charts currently have a positive bias for equities.
