pre-open comment Tuesday 17th April
On Monday ES found Resistance at 1375 (given) early in the session and then spent the rest of the session ranging around (and further building) the 4mnth poc at 1366. Pre-open today ES has once again rallied to test the 10day poc Resiistance at 1375.
Price below 1366 is a weak location and Significant Selling marked below that level would strongly suggest further weakness. There are still lots of negatives – see yesterday’s comments. Alternatively, Strong price location would be ES printing above the 1386 1/2R and I would want to see that before assuming strength. As I mentioned in Friday’s webcast, if price is between 1366 and 1386 then making a call re ST direction will be difficult.
Second Level Resistance = 1386 (1/2R off March high)
First Level Support/Resistance = 1375 (10dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1366 (4month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up slightly at 4.63 (from 4.48). No panic yet from the Rydex traders (contrarian). Last week the ratio reached 5.64, the highest ratio in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart tested below the four month poc Support at 1.3069 on Monday. Currently prints back above that level.
? Dollar Index: Chart tested above/rejected 80.15 (the most important level) and today UDX prints below that level.
? TLT: today the chart is printing just above 116.22, the major poc, having rallied last week.
imo these charts do not have an obvious bias for equities. This could change soon.
