posted 9.08 a.m.
pre-open comment Wednesday 11th April
Tuesday generated a lower, wider Value Area on increased volume. Aggressive Sellers were marked below the 1366 poc which means we need to be extremely cautious of this market. As an absolute minimum I would require Significant Buying to be marked above 1366 before even considering new longs. Note that a significant low day marked with red-at-bottom would be very unusual/rare and therefore until Buying (green) is marked again I will assume that yesterday’s low will be tested.
Dayframe: ES has rallied pre-open and currently prints at the 1366 poc. This level could be intraday Support or Resistance today. If the chart prints time below that level post-open I will expect further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 1395 (30dy poc)
Potential Support/Resistance = 1366 (45 dy poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.85 (from 4.73) on Tuesday. This on a day when the market was sharply lower indicating that there is no panic yet from the Rydex traders. From a contrarian viewpoint that is not ST bullish and I remind you again that last Tuesday’s ratio at 5.64 is the highest ratio in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart fell last week to the four month poc Support at 1.3069. Has so far held that Support.
? Dollar Index: 80.15 is the most important level on this chart and last week UDX rallied to this Resistance and has so far not broken above it.
? TLT: yesterday the chart tested above 116.22, the major poc. Currently prints just below that level.
imo these charts do not have an obvious bias for equities. This could change soon.
