posted 5a.m. et
pre-open comment Wednesday 11th July
Note: this was posted at 5a.m. et.
I wrote pre-open on Monday “A number of major charts have been technically overbought and this would be a good time for the Buyers to see what the Sellers can do.” Now we will find out. On Tuesday Significant Selling was marked for the first time in eleven days. Both Responsive Selling (red-at-top) and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom). Red-at-bottom lows are usually tested very quickly and Tuesday’s low is very close to the 1/2R at 1334.50 so price below that level would be a weaker price location. New long trades are now elimainted for me at least until Buying is marked again. I’m looking to see how Effective the Sellers can be in terms of producing lower Value (VAs) and where that is relative to the important 1/2R levels.
Key Charts today: SPY 1334.50 (1/2R) broken on Tuesday. IWM 78.80 (1/2R) held.
First Level Resistance = 1366 (poc) 137.30 (SPY)
First Level S/R = 1334.50 (1/2R) SPY = 134.67
Support = 1307 (maj poc)
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.40. This is a 37day high and a minor concern for smart Bulls.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: New low on Tuesday. This chart has been in a weak price location for weeks and this new low is a negative for equities. Minor strength would be indicated only if chart can print back above the minor poc at 1.2496.
– Dollar Index: currently threatening the June high.
– TLT: Key Chart. chart now prints back above the Minor 1/2R off June high at 127.23 That’s ST stronger price location if it holds. 24dy high printed on Tuesday.
mixed but imo charts imply a negative bias for equities.
