posted 09.12 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Wednesday 12th March
On Tuesday I marked Aggressive Selling for the first time since 02/19. Like then, this is Ineffective Selling because the Value Area is overlapping the previous day’s Value Area. Even so, new long trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again especially as Momentum for all four stock index ETFs is down, as mentioned yesterday. The minor (11dy) poc migrated back to 1872 and pre-open ES is printing below this level in a ST weak price location. Supporting Key Charts are now mixed in their implied bias for equities, see below.
First sign of weakness in the LT would be Effective Selling marked below 1835.50.
First Level Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1792.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68% (from 72%), Nasdaq 63% (from 69%), R2000 63% (from 70%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher 7.62. Last Thursday the ratio reached 7.82 which is the highest in my database indicating that the Rydex traders are extremely bullish. Historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
? KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: pre-open today is printing at its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
+ KEY Chart EURJPY: printing above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high, in a strong price location.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: pre-open today is printing back above 106.34 (10mn poc) in a stronger price location.
Dollar Index: is today probing just below 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: pre-open today is holding its strong price location above 127.20, the 18mn poc and is today printing its highest level since September. Silver (SLV) is in a weaker price location below 21.02 (2yr poc).
Oil USO: Weaker price location. Yesterday broke below 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high. Momentum, although positive, is down.
EURUSD: Currently holding above 1.367, the 12mn poc, in a strong price location.
