Pre-open comment Wednesday 14th September
note: this was written at 5.30 a.m. est
Dayframe: ES overnight low was 1148 just above the 1/2R off Aug low. Consolidation above this level would be the first minor sign of strength. I have marked no Significant Buying since the market gapped lower last week.
I have dotted in the VAH and VAL of the distribution that began late July, when the market began a violent sell off. For the Dec contract these are VAH 1188 (SPY = 120.48), VAL 1118 (SPY = 112.87)
1st Level Support ES = 1147 (1/2R off Aug low)
2nd Level Support ES = 1142 (40dy poc)
1st Level Support SPY = 114.88 (40dy poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 1.35 (from 1.22). The recent low for this ratio on 22nd Aug was 1.10, the lowest reading since Sep 2010.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Has broken below Major Support at 1.4212 (maj poc) and 1.3965 (maj 1/2R).
– Dollar Index: Currently printing above the 74.96 poc and reached a six month high on Monday.
– TLT: Last week printed its highest level since Jan 2009.
imo these charts have lined up negatively for equities.
