Pre-open comment Wednesday 15th April
Tuesday’s session generated a lower, narrower Value Area. As long as ES holds above 2072.00 it is in a strong ST price location.
Dayframe: the 10dy poc migrated to 2089.50 and is worth monitoring intraday. Price printing time below this level would be first sign of minor weakness.
First Level Support = 2072.00 (minor poc)
Second Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc); SPY 205.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61% (from 60%), Nasdaq 60% (from 61%), R2000 62% (from 63%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged 10.73. Last week the ratio fell to 9.91 which was a 50day low and represented a 29.5% fall from 14.06 on 03/02 (the highest in the database).
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: as mentioned in last week’s webcast, with a little more time at 129.80 the 5mn poc would migrate to this level. This hasn’t happened yet. Pre-open today chart is printing just below 130.75, the 1/2R off the Jan high.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Today chart has found Support at 98.28, the 1/2R off the recent high. Price below this level would be weaker price location in the ST. More importanat Support is at 94.67, the 12mn poc.
Gold GLD: pre-open today is printing below115.12, the 11mn poc.
Oil USO: pre-open today is printing above 18.39, the 12mn pocin a stronger price location.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support in March.
