Pre-open comment Wednesday 15th December
Buyers are still in control of the dayframe. Nothing to indicate this market cannot go higher but strong indications that upside will be limited. Short trades are still eliminated for me.
Just about any measure of Investor Sentiment is now sounding warning bells including the Rydex ratio (see below). I summarised the Longframe positives in the webcast yesterday (see similar bottom left on graphic) but even so, any Significant Selling (red) marked on the Profile will have me looking to trade short. I would consider Shorts speculative until Effective Selling is marked below 1220.
First Level Support = 1232.50 (7day poc)
Please note these comments were written and sent before 5.30 a.m. est. This support may have been broken by market open and may therefore become a level of Resistance.
Second Level Support = 1220 (17day poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up from 2.53 to 3.31. That’s extreme. I only have one day higher and that was April 26th (the day of the April high). Bear Fund assets that I follow were down more than 17%.
The ISEE (equity-only) ratio closed at 247, another high number which once again lifted the 10 dayma to the highest level I have in my 4year database.
Supporting Charts
+ EURUSD: currently prints above the 1/2R off the June low at 1.3087
+ UDX: currently prints just below the 80.15 major 1/2R.
+ TLT: currently prints below the 95.33 maj poc.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities but watching the Dollar Index closely.
