Pre-open comment Wednesday 15th February
For most of Wednesday’s session the minor poc at 1346 provided Resistance (twice) but later in the day ES rallied above that level putting it back in a strong price location. 1346 is now dayframe Support.
You’ll see below that the Rydex traders are just about as optimistic as they’ve ever been and that worries me. It suggests upside is limited here. I’m also aware that the decennial pattern is approaching a time period when it is usually weak (see eBook). But, I’ll stay with the dayframe analysis (presented here) for now which indicates that the Buyers are still in control of this timeframe and only Effective Selling below 1346 would suggest weakness. It has now been 39 days since I marked Aggressive Selling.
First Level Support = 1346 (min poc)
Major Support = 1307 (maj poc) SPY = 131.28
Sentiment: On Tuesday my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 4.78 which is the highest ratio I have in my database. Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this is usually a warning sign for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: Currently consolidating above the 3mnth poc at 1.30 but Momentum has turned down.
+ Dollar Index: Chart prints below the important 80.15 level but Momentum has turned up.
+ TLT: Chart is printing at the 10month poc at 117.88 but Momentum has turned up.
imo these charts currently have a positive bias for equities but this could change.
