posted 08.54 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Wednesday 16th April
ES recovered on Tuesday to print back above 1835.50, the 6mn poc, and pre-open has probed 1849.50 which is the minor 1/2R off this month’s high.
First Level S/R = 1849.50 (minor 1/2R)
First Level Support = ES 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Pre-open SPY also prints just below its own 1/2R at 185.50. These 1/2R levels off a high are natural Resistance and often mark a lower high in a weak market so important to monitor. Small caps are still underperforming Large caps with IWM retracing less than a third of its recent decline. This is also a Key chart today because pre-open IWM is probing its 12mn poc Resistance at 112.27.
Breadth: Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 43%), Nasdaq 24% (from 25%), R2000 32% (from 29%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 6.68. Up from yesterday’s 37day low. The ratio reached 8.39 on 03/13 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders were extremely bullish at that point and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
– KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: prints below its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
+KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: recently tested and held, the 2year poc Support at 107.24 and on Tuesday printed its highest level since June last year.
Dollar Index: is today printing just below 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: On Monday there was a test above 127.20, the 18mn poc, but that was rejected with the chart sharply lower.
Oil USO: pre-open today has printed its highest level since September last year.
EURUSD: Printing above 1.3673, the 12mn poc Support.
