Pre-open comment Wednesday 16th November
from pre-open comment Thur 10th Nov >>in this highly volatile, news driven market it is safer to rely on the implications of price location and look slightly longer term.<<
The stats related to the Buy/Sell imbalances have been unreliable of late reflecting the current uncertainty/volatility. Market has been in a range for the last four weeks (see index ETF charts) with the VAH of that range at ES1257 and the VAL at ES1219.
Longframe: recap
1 CP Market Timing System is Positive for U.S., Negative for U.K.
2 Most charts holding above the 1/2R off May highs. That’s strong price location if they hold.
3 EURUSD has broken down below the 1.3635 poc. Not supportive for equities imo.
4 Sentiment is mixed but ST indicators suggest over-enthusiasm recently.
The significance of the levels below should be judged by where ES opens but we know there’s a Significant Support/Resistance band between:
ES 1249 (min 1/2R) to 1244 (40dy poc)
SPY 125.46 SPY (min 1/2R) to 125.40 (40dy poc )
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down again at 2.22 (from 2.53). Last week’s highest ratio at 2.96 was a 65dy high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: has today printed a 27day low. Recently broke below the 1.3635 poc putting it back in a weak price location. Momentum down for twelve days.
– Dollar Index: has today printed a 27day high. prints above the major level at 76.27 (1/2R off the May low) and above the 77.05 min poc. Momentum up for twelve days.
? TLT: pre-open prints above the 5mnth poc at 116.34 and just above the minor 1/2R off Oct high at 117.42. Momentum up for twelve days.
imo these charts are starting to align themselves negatively for equities.
