posted 09.10 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 16th October
The VAH of the distribution that began in early July (dashed line) shifted slightly to 1704.50, see yesterday’s highlighted comments. Obviously the focus is Thursday’s deadline and hopes for a debt ceiling deal but market action does not indicate too much nervousness with consolidation around 1700 and no Significant Selling marked for a week. This could obviously change but as long as ES holds above the 1685.50 poc it remains in a strong price location.
First Level Support = 1685.50 poc
Second Level Support = 1653.50 poc
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 65%, R2000 67%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.11. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: The local poc migrated lower to 106.34 last week and is now Resistance for this chart which is currently printing below that level and printed a 17day low on Monday. Momentum (although postive) is down.
Oil USO: Consolidating below 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band in a weak price location. I’m not interested in considering the long side of this chart until price can print time above 37.93, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: Remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location. Momentum is negative and down.
Dollar Index: Is printing back above (just) the important level at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc). Dollar Bulls would want to see price holding above this level.
EURUSD: On 3rd Oct printed its highest level since February but Momentum (although positive) is down.
