posted 09.15 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 17th April
The positive from yesteday’s session is that Support held: ES 1548.50, SPY 155.80 and IWM 90.44. The ST negatives are still there: Monday’s red-at-bottom low was not tested and 80% of the time they are tested within a day or two, however, if ES can print above Monday’s session high at 1577 it would negate that negative implication especially if Significant Buyers were to be marked. Breadth numbers (see below) are not Supportive. So today is again an important test for the Bulls – can they hold charts above those Support levels.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 49% Nasdaq 45%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Resistance (minor) = ES 1582.50 (10dy poc)
Potential Support or Resistance intraday today = ES 1548.50 (5month poc)
Support = ES 1517.50 (prev poc)
VAL of the higher range of prices since early March is at ES 1538 (dashed).
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower on Tuesday at 4.26. The Recent high for the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22. 60day low was 3.49.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Earlier this month TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. This Resistance has not yet been overcome.
– Oil USO: On Tuesday printed its lowest level since December.
– Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Fell steeply on Friday and again this week to its lowest level for two years.
– Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January. On Monday chart printed its lowest level since October 2010.
+ Dollar Index: ST weak location printing below the 2month poc at 82.75. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative and down.
+ EURUSD: found Support at the Major poc at 1.2777 earlier this month and is now attempting to consolidate above the 24mn poc at 1.3070, which is stronger price location if it can hold this level. Printed a 33day high on Tuesday.
imo these charts have a slight ST positive bias for equities.
