posted 9.28 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Wednesday 17th August
Back from vacation – review: The Major poc at 1094 was tested overnight on Tues 9th August but held during the day sessions. Aggressive Buying was marked twice last week and Responsive Buying once. Currently ES probing the 8dyVAH at 1199.
Not surprisingly the Chartprofit MarketTiming System remains negative for all major Market Charts and the %Stocks>50dyma indicator remains below 20 for both Nyse and Nasdaq.
Resistance = 1222.25 (1/2R off May high) (SPY = 123.72)
First Level S/R = 1196 (20dy poc)
Major Support = 1094 (this is the MAJ LT poc)
LT Sentiment: Option Ratios, Mutual Fund Assets indicators and VIX all reached overly-bearish extremes last week confirming the capitualtion seen in my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio (contrarian ST bullish) that I reported last Thursday while on vacation. More on this in today’s webcast.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio is 1.80 from a 10month low recorded last Friday of 1.40.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 and above the 1/2R off May high at 1.44.
+ Dollar Index: Currently printing below the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: Currently printing above the major 1/2R off the 2008 high at 105.22.
imo it is difficult to imply a bias for equities in the ST.
