posted 8.32 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Wednesday 17th November
I haven’t marked Significant Buying for nine days now and that’s quite a change. Sellers are in charge for now.
Significant development: The 4month poc migrated higher to 1178 on Tuesday. As I’ve noted before, a poc migrating higher is not necessarily bullish. It depends on subsequent price action relative to that poc.
I’ve also noted many times that when the market gets spooked it tends to move quickly back to the closest important poc, in this case 1178. ES prints 1178 as I write. To turn bullish now, even in the ST I would want to see Effective Buying being marked above that 1178 poc.
Value building (time spent) below 1178 would indicate lower.
First Level S/R = 1178 poc
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly from 2.34 to 2.30. Bear Fund assets that I follow were up by 6.8% which isn’t much and Bull Fund assets were also up by 3.5%. Again, that’s not enough Bears to suggest this sell-off is over.
Supporting Charts –
– EURUSD: Most important chart to watch imo. On Tuesday the chart printed its lowest level since late September.
– UDX: On Tuesday the chart printed its highest level since September. There is major resistance above at the 80.15 1/2R.
? TLT: I wrote yesterday that TLT “has been lower over last few days with the market. Unless the inverse relationship that has existed between bonds and equities is becoming unreliable I would expect one or the other to rally soon. Currently I favour bonds especially if TLT can build some value back above the 95.33 poc.” TLT rallied yesterday – I’m looking for this chart to hold above 95.33
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
