pre-open comment Wednesday 18th July
After an initial decline on Tuesday, Buyers Responded (green-at-bottom) and auctioned ES quickly back above the 5month poc at 1346. Aggressive Buying was marked later in the session. Green-at-top highs are usually tested quickly. Significant Buying marked above 1346 is encouraging and I assume higher in the ST if that level holds. Price printing below that level down into yesterday’s green-at-bottom low would indicate that assumption is probably incorrect (the EURUSD chart is weaker again today). IWM and DIA tested their Key Support levels but closed well above. IWM = 78.80 (1/2R off 2012); DIA = 126.66 (1/2R off 2012)
First Level Resistance = 1366 (poc) SPY = 137.30
First Level Support = 1346 (5mn poc) SPY = N/A
Second Level Support = 1334.50 (1/2R off March high) SPY=134.67
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 3.86 (from 4.04). Last week’s highest ratio at 4.40 was a 37day high. VIX printed a 2month low at 16.09.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: rallied a little from the two year low printed on Friday but is weaker today.
? Dollar Index: down a little from the two year high printed on Thursday, bouncing back a little today. Momentum turned down.
– TLT: On Monday chart printed above the June high to a new high. Down from that level on Tuesday. Momentum remains up.
imo charts imply a slight negative bias for equities.
