posted 09.18 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Wednesday 19th March
Dayframe: I wrote pre-open yesterday that Useful intraday level to monitor is the minor 1/2R of the recent high. This would be..1852 ES Jun. You can see that Tuesday’s session low held that level which is a minor positive. As long as ES holds that level it is in a strong ST price location. The 40day VAH comes in at 1872 (dashed) – the chart could stall here. As I write that is where ES prints.
Longframe: Still waiting for Significant Buying to be marked and Momentum to turn up for the four stock index ETFs.
ST Support = 1852 (minor 1/2R ES Jun)
LT Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Breadth: Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72% (from 67%), Nasdaq 66% (from 61%), R2000 69% (from 63%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 7.64. The ratio reached 8.39 last week which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
+ KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: pre-open today chart is printing above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
+ KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing just above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: printing above 106.34 (10mn poc) in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: In a weak price location below 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: holding a LT strong price location above 127.20, the 18mn poc but Momentum is down and negatively diverging with price.
Oil USO: Printing below 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high in a weak price location. Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Printed a two year high last week.
