Pre-open comment Wednesday 1st April
Although ES managed to hold above 2066.50 for most of Tuesday’s session, see yesterday’s comments, a late sell-off meant that Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked again. And two things of note happened overnight. Firstly, ES declined sharply to test our First Level Support at 2033.50, in fact that was the exact overnight low. Secondly the 7mn poc migrated lower to 2045.00. ES is currently printing above 2050 so 2045.00 is now First Level Support. Bulls would hope to see Significant Buying marked above this level. First Level Resistance is 2072.00 which is the minor 1/2R off the Feb high.
First Level Resistance = 2072.00 (1/2R off Feb high)
First Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc)
Second Level Support = ES 2033.50 (previous poc); SPY 205.00 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 55% (from 60%), Nasdaq 56% (from 60%), R2000 56% (from 65%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 11.67. On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database. SPY has corrected from that point but the ratio has indicated little fear so far. From a contrarian perspective this is not very encouraging. More pessimism would be would be welcome
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: pre-open today is printing just above 130.75, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Stronger price location if it holds above that level.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Has corrected from there but there is Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Today DX is currently printing just above 98.28, the 1/2R off the recent high, which is strong price location if it holds.
Gold GLD: Rallied last week to probe 115.12, the 12mn poc. Time above this level would be a positive but currently chart is printing below that level.
Oil USO: pre-open today is printing below 18.39, the 12mn poc.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support earlier this month.
