pre-open comment Wednesday 20th February
ES broke higher on Tuesday and Significant Buying was marked. The entire session was above the First Level Support at 1517.50 which is the 30day poc.
First Level Support = 1517.50 (30dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1495 (45dy poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 79% and Nasdaq 74%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.74 (from 4.37). The ratio reached 4.81 on 01/30 which was the highest reading since 28th September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012. VIX closed at 12.31 which is the lowest since 2007
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: has spent the majority of the last three weeks printing time below 117.15, the major poc, which is weak price location.
? Oil USO: has worked off some of its technical “overboughtness” and is currently holding above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Momentum indicator turning back up would be a positive for this chart.
– Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, seven days ago. Has printed its lowest level since August last year.
– Silver SLV is a Key Chart. It rallied to 31.25, its major poc Resistance, twice in January and failed at that level. Like GLD, has printed its lowest level since August last year.
– Dollar Index: in a stronger price location if it can hold above 80.15, the major level.
– EURUSD: prints below 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low).
All these charts print close to their major levels so things can change quickly in terms of price location strength/weakness. Bonds ETF TLT is probably the key chart relative to its maj poc at 117.15.
