posted 08.40 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 20th March
Tuesday’s Value Area was generated entirely below 1547 but ES recovered and pre-open has printed back above that poc, as high as 1552.75. First sign of ST weakness would be Significant Selling marked below 1547. That level is potential intraday Support or Resistance today. Using data that covers just the higher range in March the minor VAH at 1554 and VAL at 1535 (dashed) have both rejected price probes over the last few days. Acceptance of price above 1554 would most likely be a sign of ST strength.
First Level S/R = ES 1547 (22dy poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68%, Nasdaq 65%.
Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought. We have divergence here. New highs in price but these numbers are lower than they were at the February high.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.21 (from 3.74). The 50day low for this number is 3.49. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range. In the ST that is most likely supportive. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Closed Tuesday just above the 117.15 major poc but pre-open is printing just below that Resistance. KEY CHART
? Oil USO: three weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum is up.
? Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, four weeks ago. Momentum is positive now and up.
? Silver SLV: Weak price location and recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) is up.
– Dollar Index: strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R. Momentum (although positive) is down.
– EURUSD: The 24mn poc has migrated to 1.3070. Chart is still in a weak price location below that level and on Tuesday printed its lowest level since November. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Key Chart is TLT (Bonds) watch price relative to the 117.15 major poc.
