Pre-open comment Wednesday 21st December
Red-at-bottom lows are usually tested the following day. Monday’s was not. In fact Aggressive Buying was marked on Tuesday (green-at-top). Aggressive Buying following a day of Aggressive Selling is rare and yesterday’s strong performance was not expected (by me at least). The 1/2R off May high at 1204.50 appears to have provided Support – a Value Area printed below that level would put ES in a weak position.
Overnight ES has probed above 1244 (now the 75dy poc) and so far that probe has been rejected. Pre-open prints around 1235.
First Level Resistance = ES 1244 (75dy poc) SPY =125.44
First Level Support = ES 1204.50 (1/2R) SPY =122.30
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 2.55 (from 2.43). The recent high was at 2.96 (11/07) and the recent low at 1.61 (11/25).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). (Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: weak position. Printed an eleven month low last week. Momentum turned up.
? Dollar Index: pre-open prints back below 80.15 (just belwo), the 1/2R off the 2008 low. Momentum turned down.
– TLT: Last week the 10month poc migrated higher to 117.88 and currently the Chart prints above that level.
imo these are unclear re ST bias for equities.
