pre-open comment Wednesday 21st November
Monday’s green-at-top high was tested on Tuesday. Tuesday’s session generated an overlapping/higher and wider Value Area consolidating the gains made on Monday. If price around 1387 attracts time it would most likely be ST bullish. The bigger positive would be Effective Buying marked above 1397 and the obvious negative would be Effective Selling marked below 1397 (where ES currently prints).
%Stocks>50dyma numbers for both Nyse and Nasdaq are higher but only to around 30. Numbers above 50 are supportive.
Second Level Resistance = 1308.00 poc
First Level Resistance = 1397.00 maj poc
Key Charts/Levels: SPY 137.22; IWM 79.00. Pre-open both charts print above these levels. See also EURUSD and TLT (below).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.40. Friday’s ratio at 2.57 was the lowest since since 7th June. Smart Bulls would not want to see a rapid increase in this indicator should the market rally further.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? EURUSD: Key Chart. Chart is currently printing above 1.2777, the major poc Resistance. This is stronger price location if chart can hold above this level. Momentum is now up.
? Dollar Index: Has not yet cleared the Resistance at 81.35 (1/2R off this year’s high). Daily oscillators indicate chart is overbought and Momentum has turned down which suggests a test of the 80.15 Support is likely.
? TLT: Key Chart. Broke the 1/2R Support at 125.13 on Tuesday. I said yesterday that a stall is indicated here if that Support failed. There is more important Support a little lower at 123.96, the 9mn poc. Time printed below that level would be a clearer postive for equities.
Unclear bias for equities but encouraging early signs so far this week. Could change quickly.
