Pre-open comment Wedesday 22nd June
Following the Responsive Buying on Monday ES made progress on Tuesday – Value Area was higher and slightly wider. LT analysis still negative but ES hit a 10day high yesterday. Market frustrating the Bears emerging in the Rydex data (see below).
1st Level S/R = 1280.50
2nd Level Resistance = 1314
2nd Level Support = 1265.50
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again to 1.82, the lowest level since October. Bull Fund Assets that I follow were almost unchanged but Bear Fund assets increased by 16% to the highest level for six months.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
? EURUSD: 1.3920 to 1.3965 is a band of maj LT support with 1.450 min ST Resistance (1/2R off May high). Chart currently prints between these levels. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
? Dollar Index: Chart found resistance at the descending trendline off the major high in June 2010. Momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
? TLT: Has been oscillating around the 3yr poc at 96.28. Needs to break above the major 1/2R at 98.32 to confirm another leg up but chart is OB so this may be a problem.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to imply a ST bias for equities.
