posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Wednesday 23rd March
Tuesday generated another narrow Value Area and less Volume. Most time during the session was spent at 1289.50 the exact 1/2R off February’s high and this is therefore an important level of Resistance today. Overnight a probe into the 20day poc at 1293.50 was rejected (overnight high was 1293.75) and pre-open ES is currently printing lower at 1285.
The more time ES spends below the band of Resistance the higher the chance of further weakness and a test of the 8dayVAL at 1267. SPY 128.57 (4month poc) is an important level of support – further weakness would be expected if this is broken.
Area of Resistance today is between:
1289.50 = 1/2R from Feb high (129.98 SPY) and
1293.50 = 20day poc.
8dayVAH = 1297.50 (dotted) 8dayVAL = 1267 (dotted)
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up slightly at 2.35. TheISEE (equity-only) index came in with another relatively high number at 217.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: So far has failed to test the November high at 1.4282. Currenty printing a 3day low. Still in strong price location.
+ UDX: Yesterday reached its lowest level since December 2009. Currenty printing a 3day high.
– TLT: In a stronger price location than recently and today is printing a new 5day high.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to infer a bias for equities.
