posted 09.22 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wenesday 24th July
Strictly applying my rules I had to mark Responsive Selling (red-at-top) on Tuesday. Like my comments re the Responsive Selling on 07/16 this is possibly due to Buyers Resting (forcing a Response from the Sellers) and any ST negative implications will be negated if ES prints 1694 or higher during today’s session which seems quite likely. First sign of weakness in the ST would be time spent below 1677.00, the 25day poc.
Dayframe: The 6day poc moved to 1690.50 and this level may be intraday Support or Resistance today giving a clue re direction in the very short term.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 80%, Nasdaq 79%, R2000 84%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.34. On 07/10 the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed 107.16, its lowest level since Sep 2011. Pre-open today it prints 107.54 as I write. Momentum is negative and has been moving up but a weak close today would turn Momentum back down which would look weak for this chart.
Oil USO: On Friday printed its highest level since May 2012. Pre-open today the chart is printing just below 38.0 which was previously the maj poc. There is Support at the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and as long as chart holds that level it is in a strong price location. Momentum is positive but turned down on Monday.
Gold GLD: printed a 23day high on Tuesday. Momentum is positive and up. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: printed a 22day high on Monday. Momentum is positive and up. w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is now printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc. Momentum is negative. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and printed a 21day high on Tuesday. As long as 1.3075 holds (the 9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location. Momentum turned positive on Monday.
