posted 9.15 a.m. et
pre-open comment Wednesday 24th October
Tuesday’s session generated a lower VA on increased Volume and, like Monday, the whole of yesterday’s session took place below the 1435 poc which is weak price location. Looking at a longer timeframe (than 2months) the VAL of the range from early August comes in at 1403 (dashed). With the 1397 major poc just a little below this level there is potential Support in this area of price but the Sellers are currently in control and only Significant Buying marked above 1435 would have me looking at new long positions with any degree of confidence. Breadth data has weakened, e.g. Nyse Stocks>50dyma% has fallen below 50 to 47%.
First Level Resistance = 1435.00 (5mn poc)
First Level Support = 1397.00 maj poc
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher again at 3.64 (from 3.54). Last Friday’s ratio at 3.33 was a 49day low. The ISEE (equity only) index closed at 94. This is only one day’s reading but it is very low and worth noting that it is the lowest since early June.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Last week reached the 2yrPoc Resistance at 1.3117 and is off from there. Momentum has turned down. In the ST this chart has a negative bias for equities but there is Support at the 1.2777 maj poc.
? Dollar Index: Has recovered back above the 79.19 poc. Rallying back towards the proven Resistance at 80.15. Price above this level would be strong price location.
? TLT: pre-open prints above 121.64, the 1/2R off the September low. Momentum is down.
imo determining a bias for equities from these charts is currently difficult.
