Pre-open comment Wednesday 25th March
Tuesday generated a lower, wider Value Area and Aggressive Selling was marked for the first time in ten days. These red-at-bottom lows are tested within a day (or two) 80% of the time. If ES declines further there is Support at 2066.50 and as long as chart holds above this level it is in a strong price location.
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum (PriceOsc) is positive and up for IWM (smallcaps) and negative but up for SPY, DIA and QQQ.
First Level Resistance = 2107.00 (50day poc)
First Level Support = 2066.50 (7mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64% (from 66%), Nasdaq 66% (unch), R2000 71% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 12.26, an eleven day high. On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database. VIX reached as low as 12.59 intraday yesterday, close to last week’s low at 12.54 which was the lowest since early December.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Has now retraced back above 130.75, which is the 1/2R off the Jan high. Chart is printing above this level and this is strong price location if it holds.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Has corrected from there but there is Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc.
Gold GLD: Last week printed its lowest level this year but has rallied from there and pre-open today is probing the Resistance at 115.12, the 12mn poc.
Oil USO: printed a new low last week.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support earlier this month.
