posted 09.21 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Wednesday 26th March
Tuesday generated a higher, wider Value Area. The most recent imbalance was the Responsive Selling on Friday so Significant Buying needs to be marked before I can consider new longs but ES has held a strong price location above 1835.50 while
Momentum (PriceOsc) for the four stock index ETFs (which turned down earlier this month) has now reached the zero line. Bulls would want to see these turn up. Breadth numbers are Supportive but Rydex ratio is still in extreme territory. Very mixed but if Buyers are marked and ES can overcome the 1872 Resistance there could be another push.
First Level Resistance = 1872 (2mn poc)
First Level Support = 1852 (minor 1/2R ES Jun)
Second Level Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65% (from 64%), Nasdaq 54% (unch), R2000 60% (from 61%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 7.52 (from 6.75). On 03/13 the ratio reached 8.39 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
+ KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: printing above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
? KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing just slightly above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: printing above 107.24, the 2year poc.
Dollar Index: now printing back above 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: printing back below 127.20, the 18mn poc in a weaker price location. Momentum remains down. SLV printed a 30day low on Tuesday.
Oil USO: Pre-open is printing just below 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high. Has found Resistance at this level for three days.
EURUSD: Printed a two year earlier in the month but lower last week with Momentum down.
