pre-open comment Wednesday 27th February
Tuesday generated a lower, narrower Value Area on less Volume. In the p.m. ES managed to rally back and test the 1495 poc and pre-open today has printed as high as 1497. Sampling the data on a 30minute basis gives us 1495 as the most important local poc (rather than 1517.50) and this could be intraday Support or Resistance today.
Resistance = ES 1517.50 (poc). First Level S/R = ES 1495 (poc).
The %Stocks>50dyma numbers have fallen quite quickly. More weakness this week and they could fall below 50% which would be a negative. Nyse 62%, Nasdaq 57%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.66, a 15day low. The ratio reached 5.22 on 02/13 which was the highest reading since September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012. VIX: Spiked up more than 30% on Monday to 18.98. Last Tuesday’s close at 12.31 was the lowest since 2007.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
– Bonds TLT: is now printing well above 117.15, the major poc, which is much stronger price location. Printed a 22day high on Tuesday.
– Oil USO: Last Thursday broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is now in a weak price location along with GLD and SLV.
– Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, two weeks ago. Has now printed its lowest level since July last year. Momentum is still down.
– Silver SLV: Last week printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum is still down.
– Dollar Index: On Tuesday printed its highest level since August last year. Now printing above 81.35, the 1/2R off 2012 high. Price printing time above this level would be a further indication of strength.
– EURUSD: now printing below 1.3117, the 24mn poc potential Support.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
