posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open Wednesday 28th April
Tuesday’s Value Area was lower and wider and volume was high. I marked Significant Selling for the first time in nearly six weeks. Initially there was support at 1183.50 but later in the day Sellers Aggressively (red-at-bottom) auctioned ES below that support.
My #1 dayframe rule says “never fade the last imbalance” so that eliminates the long side for me in this timeframe until Significant Buyers (green) are marked on the profile.
1183.50 is the First Level S/R (20dy poc). If ES opens above 1183.50 a good test for the Buyers will be whether they can hold ES above that level. Tuesday’s POC was 1189 (dotted) – first sign of trend down is when poc shifts from being support to resistance so look for possible resistance here.
More significant support is lower at 1161.50.
Longframe: CP Market Timing System (weekly) is positive.
Dayframe: Sellers in control. First time since 19th March.
ST sentiment: As you know Monday’s Rydex Assets Data had been unavailable pre-open yesterday so I couldn’t comment. It was released later in the day and it was very interesting. The data showed that my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio hit a record high of 3.4 and as I said in yesterday’s webcast, the Rydex timers (who are very fadable) piled into the market on Monday and were immediately punished. Yesterday the Ratio was down slightly from 3.4 to 3 which is still a very high number. Bull fund assets that I follow were down 11% but Bear funds assets did not increase at all. This data is not bullish.
Supporting Charts with important levels:
+ USDJPY prints just above the 1/2 level at 93.60.
– EURUSD reached a new multi-month low yesterday.
– UDX prints above support band 80.15-80.30. Broke to a new high yesterday.
? IEF found resistance at the 90.50 poc but daily price osc still moving higher.
These charts are currently mixed for equities:
Can USDJPY hold above 93.60?
Will IEF continue to find resistance at 90.50?
