Pre-open comment Wednesday 29th June
On Tuesday ES opened just below the 1280.50 poc and immediately rallied above it – very similar to the price action when Monday opened below the 1265.50 poc. Yesterday’s Value Area was printed entirely above 1280.50 – see Monday’s comments. Aggressive Buyers were marked again later in the session auctioning ES to a strong close.
Respecting the LT analysis I’m assuming for now this is a temporary rally in a topping market. That analysis may change. There was a big increase in Bears recently and they will probably be made to suffer further before the market moves directionally out of its five month range. Will be watching Sentiment numbers closely for clues re which way that’s going to be.
1st Level Resistance = 1310 (1/2R off May high) (131.68 SPY)
1st Level Support = 1280.50 (poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 2.18. Ratio on 06/21 at 1.82 was the lowest level since October.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Chart failed last week just below the 1.450 min ST Resistance (1/2R off May high) and made another attempt today. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down. 1.3920 to 1.3965 is a band of maj LT support.
? Dollar Index: Chart currently finding it difficult to print above the 75.65 poc. Momentum (PriceOsc) is up but 5day low printed today.
+ TLT: Broke below the 3yr poc at 96.28 on Monday and yesterday printed a 25day low. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to imply a ST bias for equities.
