Pre-open comment Wednesday 31st August
Monday’s green-at-top high was exceeded on Tuesday and the sesion generated a higher, slightly wider Value Area. The low of the session was a brief test below Monday’s poc which is a ST strong pattern.
Dayframe: Buyers are in control of the dayframe but there is 1/2R Resistance slightly higher, ES is probing above the 20dyVAH here (1203) and there is negative oscillator divergences on the intraday charts. I have to assume higher especially if the Resistance levels are exceeded (see below) but if Sellers are going to Respond, the first hour of today’s session would be ideal.
Resistance = 1222.25 (1/2R off May high) (123.72 SPY)
First Level Support = 1203.5 (minor 4dy poc) (120.90 SPY)
Support = 1169 (30dy poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down at 1.39. The recent low for this ratio at 1.10 was the lowest reading since Sep 2010.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Unchanged
+ EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 and currently prints at the 1/2R off May high at 1.44.
+ Dollar Index: Currently printing below the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: printing above the major 1/2R off the 2008 high at 105.22.
imo it is difficult to imply a bias for equities in the ST from these charts.
