Pre-open comment Wednesday 3rd August
Aggressive Selling marked again on Tuesday. These red-at-bottom lows are usually tested within one or two days.
Technically, the market is reaching oversold, e.g. the SPX RSI(14) recorded its lowest level in more than a year as the SP500 tested its June low. But, note that although the index is down nearly 7% in seven days there is no sign of panic in the Sentiment indicators. That’s complacency and complacency is not normally seen at lows.
First Level Resistance = 1274 (min poc)
Resistance = 1308 (maj poc) SPY = 131.23 (1/2R 2011)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up again slightly to 3.48 (from 3.45). That’s two days with lower Value Areas and higher ratios. As I wrote yesterday “that’s not bullish”.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 and below the 1/2R off May high at 1.44. Momentum (PriceOsc) up for nine days.
+ Dollar Index: Still in a weak position below the 74.96 poc. Momentum (PriceOsc) down for ten days.
– TLT: Currently prints above the major 1/2R at 98.32. TLT consolidating above that level would put it in a strong postion.
imo these charts are mixed for equities.
