pre-open comment Wednesday 3rd October
Tuesday’s high was early in the session at 1446, our First Level Resistance. ES then sold off to probe below First Level Support at 1435 before recovering late in the session. Pre-open ES has been printing above 1440. I remain of the view that Effective Buying marked above 1446 would indicate further strength and Effective Selling marked below 1335 would indicate further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 1446.00 (min 1/2R off Sep high)
First Level Support = 1435.00 (35dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: monitoring Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13. Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50. Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60.
Bulls would want to see price back above these levels as soon as possible.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 4.65(from 4.93). The ratio reached 5.51 on 09/18 – I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Major poc Support at 1.2777. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Momentum is still down.
? Dollar Index: is printing between the major level at 80.15 and the 79.19 poc. High on Monday was 80.15. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak strong price location.
? TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price above that level would be a strong price location and a negative for equities. Momentum is up.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
