posted 08.25 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Wednesday 4th December
Tuesday generated a lower, wider Value Area on increased Volume.
Dayframe: Pre-open ES has been printing around the 1789 area and the minor poc could migrate back to this level which would give ST traders a more local reference level. “If” enough time was printed slightly lower at 1784 for the poc to migrate to this level it would be a negative development imo.
First Level ST Resistance = 1806.00 (19dy poc)
First Level LT Support = 1758.50 poc
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 61%), Nasdaq 61% (from 63%), R2000 63% (from 65%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 5.56. There is only one reading higher than Monday’s ratio in my database and this was 5.64 on 3rd April 2012. This indicator is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Recently probed down to probe the August low. Has bounced but still in a weak price location below 106.31, the 8mn poc. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Gold GLD: Lower this week and Momentum turned down again. Very weak and looks likely to test the July low.
Oil USO: Has surprisingly rallied to a stronger price location back above 34.13, (3yr poc).
Dollar Index: The last four weeks have been spent back in a stronger price location above the important level at 80.15.
EURUSD: Strong LT price location above 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low). ST price location is stronger if chart can hold above 1.3564, (minor 1/2R off October high).
