posted 9.09 a.m. et
pre-open comment Wednesday 6th June
please note: the timeframe considered within these comments is never intended to be very short term or daytrading timeframe. Monday generated at lower, narrower Value Area on less Volume. Tuesday generated a higher, narrower Value Area on less Volume. Strictly applying my rules I had to mark Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) on Tuesday but once again this may be “forced” by Sellers Resting. More importantly, ES currently prints below 1307 and that is a weak price location. I would consider new long trades if Significant Buying is marked above 1307 or if ES fell to the area of next level Support at 1247 with Buying marked from there. Otherwise I remain very cautious. It is also worth noting that in a market with a Bearish bias, relative strength is often seen at the start of the week and relative weakness at the end of the week.
Resistance = 1307 (poc)
Support = 1247 (maj poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 2.25. This is a four month low and is more like the kind of readings usually seen at Intermediate bottoms than the numbers we were seeing through end of last week which I noted were not typical of market bottoms. So the Rydex traders are now much more pessimistic and that is worth noting.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Major poc is at 1.2777. Last week’s low at 1.2288 was the lowest print since July 2010.
– Dollar Index: Friday’s high at 83.54 was the highest print since August 2010.
– TLT: Last week chart printed a new high.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
