Tuesday generated the sixth consecutive Value Area below 2095.00, the 10mn poc which is weak price location. However, an early test below 2045.00 (former poc) was rejected and ES rallied from there. That’s mildly encouraging and suggests that 2045.00 is valid Support. We should therefore assume that if price is accepted below that level there would be further weakness. Thirty minutes pre-open ES is printing close to Tuesday poc at 2059. I need to see Significant Buying marked above 2095.00 before considering new longs.
Second Level Resistance = 2095.00
First Level Resistance = 2080.25 (1/2R off May high)
First Level Support at 2045.00 (prev poc)
All four major Stock Index ETFs closed in weak price location with Momentum (PriceOsc) negative and heading down. Bulls would also want to see Breadth numbers improve.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 32% (from 29%), Nasdaq 40% (from 42%), R2000 43% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 9.84. Two weeks ago the ratio fell to 8.78 which was a seven month low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: on Tuesday TLT closed above 117.14, the maj poc, and printed its highest level since 1st June.
Dollar Index: 96.76 is the 1/2R off March high and this is the obvious Resistance which was probed on Tuesday. Today the index prints below that level.
Gold GLD: in May a probe into the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low, was rejected. GLD remains in a weak location and on Tuesday printed close to this years low.
Oil USO: the 16mn poc recently migrated to 20.24. USO closed below that level for seven consecutive days and this week has fallen heavily. The 1/2R off the March low is at 18.55 and this is now Resistance.
EURUSD: is today printing below 1.1340, the 12mn poc.
