posted 08.18 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 9th January
Tuesday’s session generated another narrow Value Area within the range set since last week’s gap higher. No obvious Significant Selling Response has been marked since that point and ES is currently holding/accepting price at this higher level. Price around 1452/53 may continue to be attractive but it would require a lot more time at this level to lift the major poc higher. New short trades still eliminated for me at least until Significant Sellers are marked again.
%Stocks>50dyma: Nyse 84% and Nasdaq 77%. Numbers >50 are supportive (>80 usually considered overbought).
First Level Support = 1413 (3mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again on Tuesday at 4.4 (from 4.1) a 59day high. VIX was down at 13.62, the lowest level since August and very close to August’s extreme low which is a concern. There is an increasing complacency/bullishness in those indicators which is in contrast to the ISEE (equity only) index which came in at 109, the lowest single reading since mid November and indicates high Put buying by the public yesterday relative to Call buying.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: Up slightly off major poc Support at 117.15. Price printing below this level would indicate further weakness and be a positive for equities. Price holding this Support would most likely indicate equities will stall.
? Oil USO: Has rallied to important 1/2R and poc Resistance at 34.17. Price printing above this level would indicate further strength and “risk on”. Failure at this Resistance would most likely indicate equities will stall.
– EURUSD: Probed the 1.3117 (24mn poc) Resistance on Tuesday but is off that level today.
? Dollar Index: Strength late in the week saw the Dollar Index back above 80.15 which is strong price location. Can that level now hold as Support? If so it would most likely indicate equities will stall.
