Pre-open comment Wednesday 13th April
Tuesday generated a lower, narrower Value Area. Session low was 1305.25 – I have no obvious support here. Most recent Imbalance is Aggressive Selling so I will assume lower until I mark Significant Buying or until ES is able to print value above 1321 (minor 1/2R). Pre-open ES has rallied back to the previous poc at 1318.
First Level S/R = 1318 (prev poc) to 1321 (minor1/2)
Resistance1328.50 (5month poc)
Support between 1289.50 1/2R off February high and 1293 (prev poc)
Dayframe: The First Level S/R today is between 1318-1321. I would expect an early probe into this band to be rejected. If it is not and ES manages to print some time above 1321 it would imply ST strength. If there is early rejection from this price area then 1312.50 may provide support during the session. ES printing below that would suggest a test of Tuesday’s low.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down at 3.62. Last Thursday’s ratio of 3.96 is the highest I have in my database. This indicator says the Public are very bullish and this is usually a warning.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Higher again today. Highest level since January 2010.
+ UDX: Tuesday printed the lowest level since December 2009.
+ TLT: Chart has broken below the 1/2R off the February low at 91.54 which puts it in a weak position.
imo these charts have a positive ST bias for equities.
