S&P 500 pre-open Thursday 12th March

S&P 500 pre-open Thursday 12th March

Wednesday’s session tested Tuesday’s red-at-bottom low. A lower, narrow Value Area was generated but the Support at 2033.50 was not broken. Price below this level would put the chart in a still weaker price location. At these levels I will not consider the long side unless Significant Buying is marked above 2033.50.

First Level Resistance = 2107.00 (45day poc)
First Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (from 39%), Nasdaq 55% (from 53%), R2000 48% (from 45%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: SPY has declined just over 3.5% in the last seven days. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio has only fallen by 18% over the same period, i.e. since its peak at 14.06. That means the Rydex traders have shown little fear so far and that is not usually a bullish sign in the ST. Wednesday’s ratio was a 11.52.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: reached a new high at the end of January but fell sharply from there to its lowest level this year on Friday. Pre-open today is printing an eight day high.
Dollar Index: on Wednesday printed its highest level since 2003. First Level Support is the 12mn poc at 94.67.
Gold GLD: on Wednesday printed its lowest level this year and close to the November low.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and fell sharply but rallied in early February. Pre-open today prints below 18.6, the 1/2R off Jan low.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but this month has broken that Support and is now printing below well January’s low.