posted 9.05 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Thursday 17th November
ES repeated the rare pattern of an Aggressive Buying day being followed by an Aggressive Selling day, highlighting the uncertain/volatile nature of the current market. Pre-open ES has probed down towards the VAL at 1219 and currently prints 1230. With the Aggressive Selling marked yesterday, ES printing below the 40dypoc at 1244 and the EURUSD chart in a weak price location I expect more weakness in the ST but there is Major Support at 1214.50. Time printed below that level would greatly increase the odds of further weakness in the Longer Timeframe. Long Traades eliminated for me.
Support (major) = 1214.50 1/2R off May high (SPY 122.30)
First Level Resistance ES 1244 (40dy poc), SPY 125.40 (40dy poc )
Second Level Resistance ES 1249 (min 1/2R), SPY 125.46 SPY (min 1/2R)
Sentiment: Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll reported Bulls at 47.4% (up from 44.2) which is the highest number since w/e 29th July. Bears were down slightly at 32.6% bringing the nett to 14.8 which sits at 67% of the range of nett readings looking back six months. That “Sentiment Index” has increased for five consecutive weeks. This is a Contrarian Indicator.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up at 2.75 (from 2.22). Last week’s highest ratio at 2.96 was a 65dy high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: has today printed a 28day low. Recently broke below the 1.3635 poc putting it back in a weak price location. Momentum down for thirteen days.
– Dollar Index: has today printed a 28day high. prints above the major level at 76.27 (1/2R off the May low) and above the 77.05 min poc. Momentum up for thirteen days.
– TLT: pre-open prints above the 5mnth poc at 116.34 and just above the minor 1/2R off Oct high at 117.42. Momentum up for thirteen days.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
