posted 07.28 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 20th June
On Wednesday I marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom). The Value Area was overlapping/lower and towards the top of the day’s price range so this wasn’t convincingly Effective Selling. Over the last fourteen days, Significant Selling has been marked seven times and Significant Buying three times. If you follow the comments each day you know that since pre-open on Monday 3rd June I haven’t considered new long trades and at current levels I won’t until Significant Buying is marked above the 1/2R at 1635.50. ES is in a weak price location as long as it prints below the 3mn poc at 1628.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 52%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 63%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
First Level Resistance = ES 1628 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly at 4.14 (from 4.29). This still does not indicate enough fear from any useful contrarian perspective. I’m watching the ratio relative to its recent high which was 5.43 on 22nd May (May’s high day) and its recent low which was 3.27 on 25th April.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Pre-open today has printed its lowest level since March 2012.
Oil USO: pre-open today has printed back below the 34.20 Resistance area. Momentum is up and positive.
Gold GLD: Pre-open today has printed its lowest level since Sep 2010.
Silver SLV: Pre-open today has printed its lowest level since Sep 2010.
Dollar Index: Has so far held maj Support which is the major poc at 80.15. And today is printing back above 81.10, the 1/2R off 2009 high at 81.10. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
EURUSD: Today prints back below 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. Momentum is positive but has turned down.
