posted 9.18 a.m. est
Pre-open Wednesday 29th September
Although ES has been printing above the 5month VAH (1126) since 09/20 Sellers have not convincingly Responded. Significant Buyers had not been marked for five days offering an opportunity to the Sellers which they did not take. Significant Buyers were marked yesterday Responding to an early sell-off which means that short trades are eliminated for me.
The minor (10day) poc migrated up to 1139 so that is First Level S/R for today’s session.
Dayframe: I would only be interested in long trades if ES prints above 1039 especially if a price probe into that area of price is rejected early in the session.
If ES breaks to a new high in the near term I’d consider a move just above 1160 an ideal price target.
More important Support remains at 1117 (2month poc).
Sentiment: On Monday my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached the highest level since Aug 10th but was down on Tuesday from 1.7 to 1.64. In line with the comments above it looks like it will take another break to new highs to get this ratio up to a sell level.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: 1/2R off the September low is 84.41 and the chart is printing below that level which means it is still in a weak position.
+ EURUSD: Overcame 1/2R resistance at 1.35.
+ UDX: If this chart cannot recover back above 80.15 it is in a very weak price location. New eight month low today.
– TLT: has recovered back above the major 1/2R level resistance at 105.22
imo these charts are mixed but have a slight positive bias for equities.
